Greek meat supply response and price volatility in a rational expectations framework: A multivariate GARCH approach

This paper examines supply response models in a rational expectations framework for each one of the four major Greek meat markets, i.e. beef, broiler, lamb and pork. A multivariate GARCH model with Cholesky decomposition is used to incorporate price volatility into the rational expectations supply response model for each meat category and as a result the conditional covariance matrix remains positive definite without imposing any restrictions on the parameters. The empirical results confirm the existence of rational behaviour by meat producers in the four examined markets and indicate that price volatility is a major risk factor in Greek meat production while feed prices and veterinarian medicine prices are both important cost factors. Furthermore, the last Common Agricultural Policy reform is found to have a negative impact on the beef and lamb production in Greece.meat supply, price volatility, rational expectations, MGARCH., Agricultural and Food Policy,

Greek meat supply response and price volatility in a rational expectations framework: A multivariate GARCH approach

This paper examines supply response models in a rational expectations framework for each one of the four major Greek meat markets, i.e. beef, broiler, lamb and pork. A multivariate GARCH model with Cholesky decomposition is used to incorporate price volatility into the rational expectations supply response model for each meat category and as a result the conditional covariance matrix remains positive definite without imposing any restrictions on the parameters. The empirical results confirm the existence of rational behaviour by meat producers in the four examined markets and indicate that price volatility is a major risk factor in Greek meat production while feed prices and veterinarian medicine prices are both important cost factors. Furthermore, the last Common Agricultural Policy reform is found to have a negative impact on the beef and lamb production in Greece

Greek Beef Supply Response and Price Volatility under CAP Reforms

This study examines the supply response of the Greek beef market and the possible effect of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the Greek beef sector during the period 1993-2005. A GARCH process is used to estimate expected price and price volatility while several different symmetric, asymmetric and nonlinear GARCH models are estimated. The empirical results show that price volatility and feed price are important risk factors of the supply repose function, while the negative asymmetric price volatility which was detected implies that producers have a weak market position. Furthermore, the empirical findings confirm that the annual premium paid by EU to beef producers had a positive impact on the production level and that the change of the EU price support regime after 2006 will have negative effects on the beef production level in Greece

Modeling Pork Supply Response and Price Volatility: The Case of Greece

This paper examines the supply response of the Greek pork market. A GARCH process is used to estimate expected price and price volatility, while price and supply equations are estimated jointly. In addition to the standard GARCH model, several different symmetric, asymmetric, and nonlinear GARCH models are estimated. The empirical results indicate that among the estimated GARCH models, the quadratic NAGARCH model seems to better describe producers’ price volatility, which was found to be an important risk factor of the supply response function of the Greek pork market. Furthermore, the empirical findings show that feed price is an important cost factor of the supply response function and that high uncertainty restricts the expansion of the Greek pork sector. Finally, the model provides forecasts for quantity supplied, producers’ price, and price volatility

Price Transmission and Volatility in the Greek Broiler Sector: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis

This article investigates the non-linear adjustment and price volatility between consumer and producer prices in the Greek broiler sector, using a threshold error correction autoregressive model and two multivariate GARCH models, i.e. DVEC(1,1) and BEKK(1,1). The results reject the null hypothesis of linear cointegration in favor of a three-regime threshold cointegration model. A cointegrating relationship is expected either when the relative markup is squeezed more than 30.89%, i.e. the price system is found in the lower regime, or if it increases more than 39.10%, i.e. the system is found in the upper regime. In the first case, the consumer price has to increase, while in the latter case, the producer price has to increase. Both price changes tend to bring the price system into the middle regime where the average relative markup is about 35.90%. The volatility results obtained from the estimation of the two multivariate GARCH models indicate that producer and consumer broiler prices present a significant level of persistence and that producer price volatility shows higher persistence than consumer price volatility. The results also indicate that consumer price volatility is higher in the first regime than in the middle regime, while producer price volatility is higher in the third regime than in the middle regime. Finally, the results suggest that the broiler price system is moving from the first to the middle regime via an increase in both the consumer price level and the consumer price volatility, while the price system is moving from the third to the middle regime via an increase in both the producer price level and the producer price volatility.

Modeling beef supply response and price volatility under CAP reforms: The case of Greece

This study examines the supply response of the Greek beef market and the possible effect of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the Greek beef sector during the period 1993-2005. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process is used to estimate expected price, and price volatility, while several different symmetric, asymmetric and non-linear GARCH models are estimated. The empirical results show that price volatility and feed price are important risk factors in the supply response function, while the negative asymmetric price volatility that was detected implies that producers have a weak market position. Furthermore, the empirical findings confirm that the annual premium paid by the EU to beef producers had a positive impact on the production level and also, the change of the EU price support regime, after 2006, is having negative effects on beef production level in Greece.Beef supply Price volatility CAP GARCH

Modeling sheep supply response under asymmetric price volatility and cap reforms

This paper investigates the supply response of the Greek sheepmeat market and examines the effects of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms in the Greek sheepmeat industry during the period 1993-2005. The nonlinear asymmetric GARCH (NAGARCH) process is used to estimate expected price and price volatility, while supply and price equations are estimated simultaneously. Producers'' price volatility, was found to be an important risk factor of the supply response function of the Greek sheepmeat market while the negative asymmetric price volatility which was detected implies that producers have a weak market position. Furthermore, the empirical findings confirm the positive effect of the annual premium paid by EU to sheepmeat producers and indicate that the recent CAP reform will have a negative effect in the Greek sheepmeat production.supply response, price volatility, NAGARCH, CAP

Quinidine: an “Endangered Species” Drug Appropriate for Management of Electrical Storm in Brugada Syndrome

AbstractBrugada syndrome is an inherited channelopathy associated with an increased risk of syncope and sudden cardiac death. In rare cases it can be manifested with electrical storm. We report two cases of Brugada syndrome that presented with electrical storm and were treated successfully with oral quinidine, an "endangered species" drug